The ANC’s collision with the Trump Administration has much relevance in terms of the exposure that it has produced and long-term American interests.
Since the ending of white rule, international focus on South Africa declined significantly until the ANC’s inducement by Iran to accuse Israel of genocide in the ICJ. Then, with Trump shaking up the world order and re-examining US trade interests regarding AGOA (African Growth and Opportunities Act), the ANC rule of South Africa has come under the spotlight.
ANC policies on property rights, racial discrimination and its relations with the pariah state of Iran, have once again placed South Africa in the arena of censure. This is ironic because it was the ANC’s campaign against apartheid which placed South Africa there in the 1980s. But then history does have a habit of repeating itself.
Inflaming the situation is the thoroughly deserved expulsion by the US of the ANC’s nominated ambassador Ebrahim Rasool which has further aggravated US/SA relations. But given the extent to which the AGOA facilitates trade, it is very much in South Africa’s interests to mend fences with the Trump Administration.
The first step is to select a new ambassador to the US. To ease acceptance of that representative it should be someone who is not an ANC member. Choosing a candidate from the IFP would be sensible because it would be representative of the GNU.
Beyond the spat that the ANC has caused with his administration, it is helpful to consider Trump’s geopolitical strategy. He is well aware that China as his main opponent is establishing trade choke points globally: the Silk Road linking Asia and the Middle East, the eastern Pacific, the Panama Canal, cultivating South America, eying mining in Greenland, and investments in Africa.
It is also common knowledge that China seeks to be world dominant – militarily, scientifically and economically – by 2049, the centenary of communist rule.
The Cape sea route, therefore, cannot be out of Trump’s focus. The Dutch and British appreciated its significance in past centuries. Given China’s strategic interest in the Indian Ocean, the southern tip of Africa has great maritime relevance as a prospective choke point.
Therefore, keeping South Africa within its orbit is part of Trump’s strategy. Using trade and tariffs, his persuasive tools, will no doubt mark that road.
DR DUNCAN DU BOIS