Dr. Sizo Nkala
THE annual African Union (AU) Summit was held and concluded in Addis Ababa on the weekend of 15-16 February. It was a momentous summit whose outcomes could redefine the direction of an organization that has not lived up to its potential since its birth in 2002.
One of the key outcomes of the summit was the election of Djibouti’s long-serving Foreign Affairs Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, as the next Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) for the next four years. Youssouf’s election was a major upset as he unexpectedly defeated Raila Odinga, Kenya’s well-known former Prime Minister, who was seen by many as the front-runner for the post.
However, Youssouf emerged on top after a closely contested 7-round election process managing to secure 33 out of 49 votes (Gabon, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea were not eligible for voting because they are currently suspended from the AU) thus reaching the required two-thirds majority threshold to clinch the AUC Chair position.
Former chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and the outgoing chair Moussa Faki Mahamat also managed to garner a two-thirds majority in their first election after 7 rounds.
Madagascar’s former Foreign Affairs Minister, Richard Randriamandrato, was also a contestant but bowed out in the third round after managing a paltry 5 votes. As such, Ali Youssouf becomes the first East African to chair the AUC and replaces Moussa Faki Mahamat who has served as the AUC Chair for the last eight years.
Youssouf’s extensive experience as Djibouti’s top diplomat for the last two decades and his intimate knowledge of Africa’s diplomatic terrain may have come in handy for him in his campaign. On the other hand, the perception that Raila Odinga’s campaign for the AUC Chair, which was strongly backed by Kenyan President William Ruto, was a way of settling internal political tensions; Odinga's advanced age; and Kenya’s pro-West foreign policy positions on Israel, Ukraine and the United States may have militated against Odinga’s election.
Nonetheless, Youssouf has his job cut out for at least the next four years. As the AUC Chairperson, he will oversee the Commission’s finances and administration, champion the AU’s policies, coordinate with the AU’s partners such as member states, international organizations, and regional bodies, draft the AU’s common positions in international negotiations, help member states in implementing the programmes of the AU, and provide operational support for the organs of the AU among other things.
This will not be an easy task. He inherits an office that has been charged with harbouring corruption, nepotism and cronyism. Dysfunctional relations between the AUC and the Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC) have long undermined the work of the AU.
Hence, the incoming chair’s immediate task will be to put his house in order. Mr Youssouf will be confronted with the embarrassing fact that over 60 per cent of the AU’s budget (US$370 million out of US$604 million in 2024) is funded by external partners. He must have in his locker the magic wand that will turn the AU into a self-funded institution.
It does not end there. Of the 50 protocols, treaties and conventions adopted by the Assembly since the inception of the AU in 2002, only 16 have been ratified and enforced.
Even those that have been ratified and enforced such as the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and the Charter on Democracy Elections and Governance are either languishing in inertia or become honoured only in the breach.
Youssouf will have to summon all his charming powers to encourage the usually recalcitrant member states to ratify the agreements they sign in Addis Ababa and also implement them. He will have to be a norm entrepreneur par excellence selling AU norms to member states who have proven to be the most difficult clients. As he would have noted, there were only 49 countries with eligible voting powers who participated in the election process that saw him clinch the much-coveted post.
The missing six (Gabon, Niger, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea) have been suspended and sanctioned following unconstitutional changes of government in the respective countries between 2021 and 2023. While they have been frozen out of the AU, they do not seem to be in a hurry to come back into the fold.
Does this mean that the AU sanctions do not hurt enough or that life outside the AU is not so bad?These are some of the questions Mr Youssouf will have to ponder as he prepares to take his post.
Should we even mention having to coordinate and navigate the geopolitical proclivities of 55 member states as he drafts common positions on a raft of international issues which will land on his desk much more frequently amid a global order in a state of flux?
The fact that it took member states seven rounds of voting to make up their minds on his candidature should be an indication that there is nothing automatic about reaching common African positions. Youssouf will have to coordinate Africa’s response to the geopolitical fact of a hostile Donald Trump presidency in the US, rising multipolarity with major and emerging countries seeking Africa’s cooperation, climate change negotiations, the reform of global institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and the transition to green economies just to mention a few.
This will not be an enviable task by any means. But boasting 20 years as Djibouti’s chief diplomat under his belt during which he would have played a key role in convincing the global rivals, the US and China, to build their biggest military bases in the continent almost next to each other in Djibouti, Mr Youssouf will know a great deal about walking the tight rope of diplomatic etiquette.
His experience will certainly stand him in good stead in traversing the unpredictable diplomatic terrain in Africa. Further, the Djiboutian diplomat will have to streamline the division of labour between the AU and the Regional Economic Communities (RECs), especially in responding to the outbreak of violent conflict.
The lack of clarity in the roles of RECs and the AU in these situations has hampered the ability to promptly restore peace and stability in conflict-ridden areas as we have witnessed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Sudan.
The lack of coordination at the regional and continental levels has been highlighted in the case of the DRC where two mediation processes – the Luanda process mandated by the AU and the Nairobi process under the auspices of the East African Community – were being conducted parallel to each other. This was unnecessary duplication and a waste of scarce resources.
It is good that there are steps to consolidate the two initiatives into a single process. Youssouf will have to ensure that these efforts are accelerated. As such, the newly elected AUC Chair faces a formidable albeit not insurmountable task ahead. An overly ambitious approach to his new role will only lead to exhaustion and failure.
Youssouf should be careful not to bite more than he can chew. Whatever the case, Youssouf assumes a strategic position in an ailing institution. Only time will tell whether his skill set is what the doctor ordered.
* Dr. Sizo Nkala is a Research Fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa-China Studies.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.