The La Niña cycle that the Southern Hemisphere finds itself in currently, remained a concern as South Africa experienced episodes of excessive rains at the start of the 2021/22 summer season, which proved disastrous for crop plantings and vegetables in some places.
This was according to the Agricultural Business Chamber’s chief economist, Wandile Sihlobo, who also said the livestock industry had seen increased disease incidents due to wet weather conditions.
“Fortunately, to our knowledge, there are no clear signs pointing to yet another season of dangerous rains, but this is a risk that cannot be ruled out,” Sihlobo said.
The La Niña cycle, meant the typical weather conditions would be higher rainfall for southern Africa, and drought for East Africa and South America. Extreme weather events could mean excessive rains in southern Africa, while other regions would remain dry.
Sihlobo said South Africa was about a month away from the start of the 2022/23 summer crop season.
“Farmers in the eastern regions of South Africa, which includes the eastern Free State, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape, will start planting by mid-October. This will primarily be summer grains and oilseed plantings. The northern hemisphere has experienced extreme heat and drought these past few months, prompting us to wonder if the southern hemisphere could experience similar extremes in the upcoming 2022/23 summer season.”
Sihlobo said the SA Weather Service (SAWS) saw a strong likelihood of a weak La Niña state, which Agbiz suspected would bring moderate rains favourable for agricultural production.
The weather agency has said forecasts indicate that a weak La Niña state would likely remain during the remainder of 2022 and return to a neutral state early next year.
“We view such forecasts as somewhat comforting and pointing to a season of above-average rainfall but within the levels at which agricultural activity could continue. The SAWS states that ‘rainfall conditions are predicted to improve further during the early-summer (Oct-Nov-Dec) into the start of the mid-summer months (Nov-Dec-Jan),” Agbiz said.
“This is a favourable time for summer grains and oilseed planting, as these crops typically need high moisture between October to February of the following year. After that, the warmer weather conditions naturally aid crop maturation. These are also ideal and favourable conditions for the livestock industry that depends on natural grazing.”
He said the prospects of a La Niña were not only reported by the domestic weather agency.
In its most recent update, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology estimated that "the chance of La Niña forming in the coming months is at least 70 percent. This is around three times the normal likelihood of an event forming in any year"
The current 2022/23 maize production estimates from the International Grains Council suggested that Brazil and Argentina maize production could increase by 7 percent and 6 percent from the 2021/22 season to 123 million tons and 61 million tonnes, respectively. Moreover, Brazil and Argentina's 2022/23 soybeans production was estimated at 145 million tonnes and 48 million tonnes, up by 17 percent and 14 percent from the previous season, respectively.
Sihlobo said this crop improvement was on the back of an expected expansion in area plantings and favourable rains. “Importantly, these countries will also start planting around the same time as South Africa.
“Therefore, if the weather conditions prove more extreme than currently expected, the challenge won’t only be felt in South Africa, but also globally. The expected improvement in global soybeans production, and stability in maize production, largely depends on the outcome of South America's production in the upcoming 2022/23 season.
“We will get a clearer picture of how much area farmers planted on October 26, 2022, when the Crop Estimates Committee releases its farmers’ intentions to plant data. We think the area will roughly remain unchanged from the previous seasons, which is around 4.1 million hectares for all summer crops,” Sihlobo said.
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